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Sat Nov 7, 6:30 PM CT · NBC | Peacock · Notre Dame Stadium
Our call: Notre Dame by 6.6 · 67% pregame win chance ✓ right
33%Our win chance67%
Our win chance: Notre Dame 67% · Miami 33% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Notre Dame 31, Miami 24 · our call right
Final: Notre Dame 31, Miami 24
Closest: The Margin (Notre Dame by 7.0, missed by 0.0). 9 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
9 of 10 models favored Notre Dame
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model · experimental Miami +20.5 vs Notre Dame +29.1 | Notre Dame by 11.1 ✓ | Notre Dame 79% | 4.1 |
| The Margin Closest The Margin's model | Notre Dame by 7.0 ✓ | Notre Dame 69% | 0.0 |
| Elo Miami 1993 vs Notre Dame 2073 | Notre Dame by 5.7 ✓ | Notre Dame 66% | 1.3 |
| Sagarin Miami +91.0 vs Notre Dame +92.5 | Notre Dame by 4.2 ✓ | Notre Dame 62% | 2.8 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Notre Dame by 3.5 ✓ | Notre Dame 60% | 3.5 |
| SRS Miami +20.2 vs Notre Dame +21.1 | Notre Dame by 3.4 ✓ | Notre Dame 60% | 3.6 |
| Sonny Moore Miami +97.5 vs Notre Dame +96.8 | Notre Dame by 3.3 ✓ | Notre Dame 59% | 3.7 |
| ESPN FPI Miami +26.1 vs Notre Dame +26.8 | Notre Dame by 3.2 ✓ | Notre Dame 59% | 3.8 |
| SP+ Miami +24.7 vs Notre Dame +25.2 · week 9 ratings | Notre Dame by 3 ✓ | Notre Dame 59% | 4.0 |
| Record Notre Dame 7-1, Miami 8-0 | Miami (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Notre Dame by 6.6 ✓ | Notre Dame 67% | 0.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
SP+, Elo, Our model, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin, Sonny Moore, The Margin and Market favored Notre Dame; Record favored Miami (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Notre Dame by 3.0, Elo had Notre Dame by 5.7, Our model had Notre Dame by 11.1, ESPN FPI had Notre Dame by 3.2, SRS had Notre Dame by 3.4, Sagarin had Notre Dame by 4.2, Sonny Moore had Notre Dame by 3.3, The Margin had Notre Dame by 7.0, and Market had Notre Dame by 3.5. They were within 8.1 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 6:07 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Notre Dame leads 18–9–1 · last: Miami 27–24, 2025 · Miami has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami 27–24 | Hard Rock Stadium |
| 2017 | Miami 41–8 | Hard Rock Stadium |
| 2016 | Notre Dame 30–27 | Notre Dame Stadium |
| 2012 | Notre Dame 41–3 | — |
| 2010 | Notre Dame 33–17 | neutral site |