This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 2:30 PM CT · CBS · Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Our call: Ohio State by 11.6 · 78% pregame win chance ✗ wrong
22%Our win chance78%
Our win chance: Ohio State 78% · Oregon 22% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Oregon 41, Ohio State 28 · our call wrong
Final: Oregon 41, Ohio State 28
Closest: Sonny Moore (Ohio State by 3.7, missed by 16.7). 0 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Ohio State
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Margin The Margin's model | Ohio State by 16.3 ✗ | Ohio State 88% | 29.3 |
| SP+ Oregon +17.0 vs Ohio State +28.6 · week 9 ratings | Ohio State by 14.1 ✗ | Ohio State 85% | 27.1 |
| Elo Oregon 1797 vs Ohio State 2019 | Ohio State by 11.4 ✗ | Ohio State 79% | 24.4 |
| ESPN FPI Oregon +17.4 vs Ohio State +26.2 | Ohio State by 11.3 ✗ | Ohio State 79% | 24.3 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Ohio State by 10.5 ✗ | Ohio State 78% | 23.5 |
| Our model · experimental Oregon +18.4 vs Ohio State +25.3 | Ohio State by 9.4 ✗ | Ohio State 75% | 22.4 |
| SRS Oregon +14.1 vs Ohio State +18.7 | Ohio State by 7.1 ✗ | Ohio State 70% | 20.1 |
| Sagarin Oregon +89.2 vs Ohio State +92.6 | Ohio State by 6.2 ✗ | Ohio State 67% | 19.2 |
| Sonny Moore Closest Oregon +91.2 vs Ohio State +90.9 | Ohio State by 3.7 ✗ | Ohio State 61% | 16.7 |
| Record Ohio State 6-2, Oregon 5-3 | Ohio State (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Ohio State by 11.6 ✗ | Ohio State 78% | 24.6 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Ohio State (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Ohio State by 14.1, Elo had Ohio State by 11.4, Our model had Ohio State by 9.4, ESPN FPI had Ohio State by 11.3, SRS had Ohio State by 7.1, Sagarin had Ohio State by 6.2, Sonny Moore had Ohio State by 3.7, The Margin had Ohio State by 16.3, and Market had Ohio State by 10.5. They were within 12.6 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 2:27 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Ohio State leads 10–2 · last: Ohio State 41–21, 2024
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ohio State 41–21 | neutral site |
| 2024 | Oregon 32–31 | Autzen Stadium |
| 2021 | Oregon 35–28 | Ohio Stadium |
| 2014 | Ohio State 42–20 | neutral site |
| 2009 | Ohio State 26–17 | neutral site |