This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 2:30 PM CT · FS1 · Husky Stadium (Seattle)
Our call: Washington by 1.3 · 54% pregame win chance ✗ wrong
46%Our win chance54%
Our win chance: Washington 54% · Penn State 46% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Penn State 28, Washington 25 · our call wrong
Final: Penn State 28, Washington 25
Closest: ESPN FPI (Penn State by 2.5, missed by 0.5). 3 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
7 of 10 models favored Washington
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Margin The Margin's model | Penn State by 5.0 ✓ | Penn State 64% | 2.0 |
| SP+ Penn State +9.3 vs Washington +9.5 · week 9 ratings | Washington by 2.7 ✗ | Washington 58% | 5.7 |
| ESPN FPI Closest Penn State +12.2 vs Washington +7.2 | Penn State by 2.5 ✓ | Penn State 57% | 0.5 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Washington by 2.5 ✗ | Washington 57% | 5.5 |
| Our model · experimental Penn State +8.6 vs Washington +7.8 | Washington by 1.7 ✗ | Washington 55% | 4.7 |
| Sagarin Penn State +81.7 vs Washington +80.2 | Washington by 1.3 ✗ | Washington 54% | 4.3 |
| SRS Penn State +6.8 vs Washington +5.3 | Washington by 1 ✗ | Washington 53% | 4.0 |
| Elo Penn State 1798 vs Washington 1722 | Penn State by 0.5 ✓ | Penn State 52% | 2.5 |
| Sonny Moore Penn State +82.8 vs Washington +78.8 | Washington by 0.1 ✗ | Washington 50% | 3.1 |
| Record Washington 5-3, Penn State 4-4 | Washington (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Washington by 1.3 ✗ | Washington 54% | 4.3 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
SP+, Our model, SRS, Sagarin, Sonny Moore, Record and Market favored Washington; Elo, ESPN FPI and The Margin favored Penn State (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Washington by 2.7, Elo had Penn State by 0.5, Our model had Washington by 1.7, ESPN FPI had Penn State by 2.5, SRS had Washington by 1.0, Sagarin had Washington by 1.3, Sonny Moore had Washington by 0.1, The Margin had Penn State by 5.0, and Market had Washington by 2.5. The furthest apart are 7.7 points from each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 2:27 PM CT).
Last 4 meetings
Penn State leads 4–0 · last: Penn State 35–6, 2024 · Penn State has won 4 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Penn State 35–6 | Beaver Stadium |
| 2017 | Penn State 35–28 | neutral site |
| 1983 | Penn State 13–10 | neutral site |
| 1921 | Penn State 21–7 | — |