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Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM CT · ACC Network · Scott Stadium
Our call: Virginia by 13.6 · 82% pregame win chance
18%Our win chance82%
Our win chance: Virginia 82% · California 18% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favor Virginia
| Model | Says | Win chance | Use this |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ California -11.4 vs Virginia +2.1 | Virginia by 16 | Virginia 88% | Use this |
| SRS California -9.8 vs Virginia +1.5 | Virginia by 13.8 | Virginia 84% | Use this |
| ESPN FPI California -7.0 vs Virginia +3.9 | Virginia by 13.4 | Virginia 83% | Use this |
| Sonny Moore California +63.3 vs Virginia +72.6 | Virginia by 13.4 | Virginia 83% | Use this |
| Elo California 1209 vs Virginia 1476 | Virginia by 13.2 | Virginia 83% | Use this |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Virginia by 12.5 | Virginia 82% | Use this |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Virginia by 12.0 | Virginia 81% | Use this |
| Sagarin California +63.9 vs Virginia +73.0 | Virginia by 11.7 | Virginia 80% | Use this |
| Our model · experimental California -5.9 vs Virginia +3.3 | Virginia by 11.7 | Virginia 80% | Use this |
| Record Virginia 4-5, California 3-6 | Virginia (better record) | – | Use this |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Virginia by 13.6 | Virginia 82% | Use this |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Virginia 9 games, California 9 games
Edge: Virginia wins 3 of 5
Virginia moves the ball better, is more disruptive and allows fewer big plays. California stops plays better and has the edge on big plays.
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43%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 37%
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41.2% Stops playssuccessful plays allowed ✓41.0%
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16%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 12%
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1.12 Big playson offense ✓1.26
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1.23✓ Big plays allowedon defense 1.36
Run game, head to head · season to date
Virginia's runs work 45% of the time; California's run defense allows 46%. California's runs work 36% of the time; Virginia's run defense allows 43%.
More numbers
| Measure | Virginia | California | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 43.0% | 36.8% | Virginia |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.12 | 1.26 | California |
| Def. success rate allowed | 41.2% | 41.0% | California |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.23 | 1.36 | Virginia |
| Havoc created | 15.8% | 11.6% | Virginia |
- Run game, success rate: Virginia offense 45.0% · California defense allows 45.6% · edge: Virginia
- Run game, success rate: California offense 36.5% · Virginia defense allows 42.6% · edge: Virginia
- Run game, PPA per play: Virginia offense +0.15 · California defense allows +0.24 · edge: Virginia
- Run game, PPA per play: California offense -0.07 · Virginia defense allows +0.13 · edge: Virginia
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 42%, PPA per play +0.07, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 10 models favor Virginia.
SP+ has Virginia by 16.0, Elo has Virginia by 13.2, Our model has Virginia by 11.7, ESPN FPI has Virginia by 13.4, SRS has Virginia by 13.8, Sagarin has Virginia by 11.7, Sonny Moore has Virginia by 13.4, The Margin has Virginia by 12.0, and Market has Virginia by 12.5. They are within 4.3 points of each other.
Last 1 meeting
Virginia leads 1–0 · last: Virginia 31–21, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Virginia 31–21 | California Memorial Stadium |