·
Sat Nov 14, Time TBA · ABC · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Our call: LSU by 2.3 · 56% pregame win chance
44%Our win chance56%
Our win chance: LSU 56% · Texas 44% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 10 models favor LSU
| Model | Says | Win chance | Use this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model · experimental Texas +18.2 vs LSU +20.5 | LSU by 4.8 | LSU 64% | Use this |
| Market the market's pregame margin | LSU by 4.5 | LSU 63% | Use this |
| SRS Texas +21.4 vs LSU +23.1 | LSU by 4.2 | LSU 62% | Use this |
| SP+ Texas +23.5 vs LSU +22.9 | LSU by 1.9 | LSU 55% | Use this |
| The Margin The Margin's model | LSU by 1.6 | LSU 55% | Use this |
| Sonny Moore Texas +97.2 vs LSU +94.7 | LSU by 1.5 | LSU 54% | Use this |
| ESPN FPI Texas +23.9 vs LSU +22.5 | LSU by 1.1 | LSU 53% | Use this |
| Sagarin Texas +91.8 vs LSU +89.9 | LSU by 0.7 | LSU 52% | Use this |
| Elo Texas 1953 vs LSU 1898 | LSU by 0.3 | LSU 51% | Use this |
| Record LSU 6-3, Texas 7-2 | Texas (better record) | – | Use this |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | LSU by 2.3 | LSU 56% | Use this |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · LSU 9 games, Texas 9 games
Edge: LSU wins 3 of 5
LSU moves the ball better, stops plays better and is more disruptive. Texas has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays.
-
51%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 42%
-
33.8%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 33.9%
-
21%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 20%
-
1.15 Big playson offense ✓1.21
-
1.26 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.11
Run game, head to head · season to date
LSU's runs work 49% of the time; Texas's run defense allows 33%. Texas's runs work 44% of the time; LSU's run defense allows 32%.
More numbers
| Measure | LSU | Texas | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 51.1% | 41.6% | LSU |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.15 | 1.21 | Texas |
| Def. success rate allowed | 33.8% | 33.9% | LSU |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.26 | 1.11 | Texas |
| Havoc created | 20.8% | 19.5% | LSU |
- Run game, success rate: LSU offense 48.5% · Texas defense allows 32.9% · edge: Texas
- Run game, success rate: Texas offense 43.6% · LSU defense allows 31.8% · edge: LSU
- Run game, PPA per play: LSU offense +0.14 · Texas defense allows -0.08 · edge: Texas
- Run game, PPA per play: Texas offense -0.02 · LSU defense allows -0.04 · edge: LSU
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 42%, PPA per play +0.07, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
SP+, Elo, Our model, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin, Sonny Moore, The Margin and Market favor LSU; Record favors Texas.
SP+ has LSU by 1.9, Elo has LSU by 0.3, Our model has LSU by 4.8, ESPN FPI has LSU by 1.1, SRS has LSU by 4.2, Sagarin has LSU by 0.7, Sonny Moore has LSU by 1.5, The Margin has LSU by 1.6, and Market has LSU by 4.5. They are within 4.5 points of each other.
Last 5 meetings
Texas leads 8–7–1 · last: LSU 45–38, 2019
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | LSU 45–38 | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium |
| 2002 | Texas 35–20 | neutral site |
| 1962 | LSU 13–0 | neutral site |
| 1954 | Texas 20–6 | — |
| 1953 | LSU 20–7 | — |