Next up projections
vs Florida
Week 7 · Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT / 12:00 PM ET · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin) · Florida (FBS, SEC)
Our call: Texas by 13.0Strong
All three models favor Texas. The line, shown for comparison only, has Texas by 10.0.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
Regression watch: Last game's 3-point loss matched the play (score +1 against play), inside the 7-point band: no flag. More ›
Schedule: Played the 1st-toughest schedule in FBS so far (average opponent rating +11.4); 10th-toughest remaining (+11.2). More ›
Opponents by our model's rating 5 played · 7 left
- Week 1 vs Texas State (+2.7)
- Week 2 vs Ohio State (+25.9)
- Week 3 vs UTSA (+0.9)
- Week 4 at Tennessee (+13.1)
- Week 6 vs Oklahoma (+14.7)
- Remaining:
- Week 7 vs Florida (+11.8)
- Week 8 vs Ole Miss (+13.6)
- Week 9 vs Mississippi State (+10.7)
- Week 10 at Missouri (+13.9)
- Week 11 at LSU (+18.5)
- Week 12 vs Arkansas (-2.4)
- Week 13 at Texas A&M (+12.0)
Each opponent's rating from our model's week 7 snapshot, in points against an average FBS team; the averages are ranked among the 138 FBS teams. Played means through week 6. Experimental, like the Our model card.
Series: Texas leads 3–1–1 · last: Florida 29–21, 2025
Series history 5 meetings since 1924
- All-time: Texas leads 3–1–1 (5 meetings since 1924)
- Last meeting: Florida 29–21, 2025, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
- Streak: none
- At DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium: Texas leads 1–0 (1 meeting)
- Biggest margins: Texas 49–17 (2024) · Florida 29–21 (2025)
- Since 2000: tied 1–1 (2 meetings)
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida 29–21 | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium |
| 2024 | Texas 49–17 | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium |
| Rating | Texas | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +24.4 #6 | +11.0 #31 |
| Elo | 1914 | 1619 |
Projected margin for Texas · three models and the line, side by side
SP+
+15.9
Texas +24.4 vs Florida +11.0
avg miss 10.6
closest 47/79
Elo
+14.3
Texas 1914 vs Florida 1619
avg miss 12.3
closest 33/79
Line · benchmark
+10.0
pregame line
avg miss 11.1
Our model · experimental
+8.7
Texas +18.1 vs Florida +11.8
prior 55%
avg miss 11.8
closest 14/40
How to read this
- SP+ is a rating of how good a team is, in points better or worse than an average team, built from its play-by-play, so the gap between two teams' ratings is a projected margin.
- Elo is a rating that goes up with every win and down with every loss, more for beating a strong team, less for beating a weak one. The gap between two ratings is divided by 25 to turn it into points.
- The line is the pregame line, the margin the market expected, shown from Texas's side. It is not one of the models: it is shown for comparison only, as the benchmark the models and Our call are measured against.
- Our model is this site's own experimental rating, built from each team's play-by-play adjusted for who it has played, blended with a preseason estimate from last season, returning players and recruiting. "prior 67%" means 67 percent of the rating is still that preseason estimate; the share shrinks as games are played.
- In SP+, Elo and our model the home team gets 2.5 points (Texas); the line already includes the market's own home edge. The conversion to points is approximate.
- "avg miss 9.8" under a card is how far that model's projections have been from the actual margins this season, on average, in points. "closest 10/39" is how many of the season's 39 finished games that model came closest on (a tie counts for every tied model); the line, a benchmark, shows its average miss only. Shown once a model has 20 finished games.
- Our call, above the cards, is the site's prediction: the simple average of the SP+, Elo and our model margins. The pregame line is left out of it and kept as a benchmark to measure it against. Toss-up means the average is under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 or more. It is made only when all three of those models have a number, and it is scored after the game like the models.
- Each card is one method's estimate, shown side by side; when they disagree, that is worth knowing.
- After a game, the sentence under the score shows every model and the line against the actual margin: ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not (the line, a benchmark, gets no mark), and Closest: the model nearest the final margin among those present, never the line (an exact tie goes to the first listed). The "closest 10/39" counts keep the accuracy report's scoring of SP+ and Elo, where a tie credits both.
- Metrics explained: the four models and their track record ›
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Texas 5 games, Florida 6 games
Edge: Texas wins 3 of 5
Texas stops plays better, is more disruptive and allows fewer big plays. Florida moves the ball better and has the edge on big plays.
Texaslonger bar = betterFlorida
-
43% Moves the ballsuccessful plays ✓49%
-
34%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 44%
-
21%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 18%
-
1.17 Big playson offense ✓1.25
-
1.05✓ Big plays allowedon defense 1.27
Run game, head to head · season to date
Texas's runs work 45% of the time; Florida's run defense allows 44%. Florida's runs work 46% of the time; Texas's run defense allows 35%.
More numbers
| Measure | Texas | Florida | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 43.0% | 48.9% | Florida |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.17 | 1.25 | Florida |
| Def. success rate allowed | 34.3% | 44.3% | Texas |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.05 | 1.27 | Texas |
| Havoc created | 21.2% | 18.4% | Texas |
- Run game, success rate: Texas offense 44.5% · Florida defense allows 43.6% · edge: even
- Run game, success rate: Florida offense 46.0% · Texas defense allows 35.4% · edge: Texas
- Run game, PPA per play: Texas offense +0.02 · Florida defense allows +0.11 · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: Florida offense +0.19 · Texas defense allows -0.07 · edge: even
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
Injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Coverage (AI-assisted) · 45
Gathered by an AI model from public posts, not from CollegeFootballData. Not used in any number on this page. Verify against the linked sources. Beat coverage checked Tue Oct 13, 7:00 PM CT.
-
Arch Manning excels in short passing and passer rating
Arch Manning has 79 percent completion on short passes and ranks second in the SEC in NFL passer rating.
-
Steve Sarkisian named to Dodd Trophy midseason watch list
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian was named to the Dodd Trophy midseason watch list.
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Texas offensive linemen rank among SEC best in pass blocking
Trevor Goosby and Dylan Sikorski have two of the three highest PFF pass blocking grades in the SEC.
- Video: Steve Sarkisian press conference (Oct. 12)
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Sarkisian discusses possible special teams change
Sarkisian commented on Texas special teams and the possibility of making a change.
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Manning excited for Florida rematch
Arch Manning said he is excited to play Florida again after last year left a bad taste.
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Sarkisian addresses special teams and playcalling duties
Sarkisian discussed his playcalling role and Jeff Banks as special teams coordinator.
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Florida NIL package for Easton Royal exceeds $1.6 million
Florida's NIL offer to Easton Royal was over $1.6 million.
-
Five-star wide receiver Easton Royal flips his commitment from Texas to Florida
The top-ranked 2027 receiver from New Orleans has flipped to the Gators.
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What's next after Easton Royal flips to Florida
Super Blue Chip Easton Royal flipped from Texas to Florida.
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Week 6 takeaways note Georgia win and UCLA as contender
Takeaways say Kirby Smart beat Alabama, UCLA is CFP-bound and Texas overrated.
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Sarkisian will not give up playcalling
Steve Sarkisian will not give up playcalling duties after the loss.
-
No. 1/1 Football suffers first loss to Oklahoma, 27-24
Longhorns now lead all-time series over Sooners, 65-52-5.
-
Texas flaws finally cost them against the Sooners
Texas had flaws that finally cost them in a helluva fight by the Sooners.
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Texas DL Justus Terry listed as questionable on Thursday's SEC availability report
Justus Terry listed as questionable; Nick Townsend no longer on the report.
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No. 1/1 Football’s Manning named Top 15 candidate for Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award
The senior quarterback has led Texas to a 4-0 start and two AP Top 25 victories this season.
- Video: Steve Sarkisian media availability (Oct. 8)
-
Williams named to 2026 SEC Football Legends Class
The 1998 Heisman Trophy winner will be honored at events surrounding the SEC Football Championship Game in Atlanta in December.
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Sarkisian says Texas faring favorably on injury report
Texas is faring pretty favorably on the injury report, Sarkisian said.
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Sarkisian: Nick Townsend return would boost TE depth
Getting Nick Townsend back would be a big boost for tight end depth, Sarkisian said.
- Sarkisian: Texas had hard, physical practice week
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Billy Sims and Ricky Williams named to 2026 SEC Football Legends class
Billy Sims and Ricky Williams were named to the 2026 SEC Football Legends class.
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Sarkisian calls Red River Rivalry one of those uniquely special moments
Steve Sarkisian said the Red River Rivalry is one of those uniquely special moments in college football.
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Sarkisian identifies biggest problems with Texas after self-scout
Steve Sarkisian identified Texas' biggest issues after a bye week self-scout.
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Venables blasts Oklahoma OL inconsistency before Texas game
Brent Venables called Oklahoma's offensive line incredibly inconsistent and very disappointing.
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Colin Simmons nears Texas all-time sack list
Colin Simmons has 18 sacks in last 365 days and sits 2.5 from third all-time at Texas.
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Texas got to bye week unscathed before daunting SEC gauntlet
Texas reached the bye week unscathed ahead of a challenging SEC schedule including Oklahoma.
- Video: Football player media availability (Oct. 5)
- Video: Steve Sarkisian press conference (Oct. 5)
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Sarkisian: Texas healthier coming out of bye week
Sarkisian said Texas is healthier than it was going into the bye week.
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Heupel has not decided on Tennessee quarterback for Arkansas
Josh Heupel has not named a starting quarterback for Tennessee at Arkansas.
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Texas 2027 WR target Ja'Hyde Brown video
Video posted of Texas Longhorns 2027 WR target Ja'Hyde Brown.
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Texas entering picture for WR Ja'Hyde Brown
Texas is now entering the picture for Louisville WR commit Ja'Hyde Brown.
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Longhorn Legend Duke Carlisle passes away
An Academic All-American and Team MVP, Carlisle quarterbacked the Longhorns to the 1963 National Championship, which was the program's first.
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Texas five-star WR commit Easton Royal to visit Florida again
Texas WR commit Easton Royal will visit Florida on Oct.
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Team intel on Red River focus and young talent plans
Texas focusing on Oklahoma with injured players returning to practice.
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Texas coaches hit recruiting trail and set to see No. 1 WR
Texas coaches are on the road seeing the No. 1 WR and new targets.
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Inside the Program: OU Focus, Key Injury Returns & Special Teams Changes
Here's the latest team news from Texas' bye week.
- Video: No. 1/1 Football's Kanu joins The Jim Rome Show
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Oklahoma coach confirms John Mateer remains starting quarterback
Brent Venables said John Mateer will stay as Oklahoma starter before the Texas game.
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Georgia Tech LB commit Jason Crenshaw sets official visit to Texas
Georgia Tech LB commit Jason Crenshaw has an official visit to Texas locked in for October 24.
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Transfer G Mikey Lewis to miss extended time after foot surgery
Texas transfer G Mikey Lewis will have surgery to repair a foot fracture and miss extended time.
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Texas quarterback Arch Manning named to the 2026 TIME100 Next list
Arch Manning was recognized among TIME's 100 emerging leaders from around the world.
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AD Chris Del Conte says embarrassing player celebrations will not be tolerated
Texas AD Chris Del Conte said embarrassing player celebrations will not be tolerated and cannot happen again.
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Texas-Tennessee was the most-watched Week 4 college football game
Texas-Tennessee drew 9.7 million viewers as Week 4's most-watched game per Nielsen.
10 entries about games now final not shown.
Score and result
Texas 24, Oklahoma 27L
Game page: the call before kickoff and how each model did ›
Projected: SP+ n/a · Elo +8.0 ✗ · Our model +4.2 ✗ · the line (benchmark) +6.0 · actual -3 · Closest: Our model
Texas was as high as 84% and lost
- Q4 · 2nd & 6 · 18% → 64%Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #4 J.Bishop Jr. caught at OU04, for 15 yards to the OU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:32, 1ST DOWN #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #43 M.Chiumento, LS: #47 T.Dubuc) PENALTY OU Leverage (#34 A.Adebawore) 15 yards from OU00 to UT50
- Q4 14:52 · 1st & 2 · 71% → 32%(14:52) Shotgun #9 L.Avant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:48, 1ST DOWN #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)
- Q4 · 2nd & 13 · 49% → 12%No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass intercepted by #22 P.Bowen at UT42 #22 P.Bowen return 42 yards to the UT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:07 #29 T.Sandell kick attempt good (H: #87 J.Ulrich, LS: #50 B.Anderson)
Neutral site at Cotton Bowl · Sat Oct 10, 2:30 PM CT / 3:30 PM ET · vs Oklahoma (FBS, SEC)
Opponent for every game-level number: Oklahoma (FBS, SEC).
- By quarter: Texas 7-10-0-7 · Oklahoma 0-7-3-17
- Week 6 polls: Coaches: Texas #1 · AP: Texas #1
- Pregame Elo: Texas 1930, Oklahoma 1731
- Postgame win probability: 35.2%
Verdict
The 3-point loss matched the play: Oklahoma's per-play edge (PPA (expected points added per play) -0.08 vs -0.02, success rate 35% vs 34%) implies roughly a -4 margin.
The verdict compares the score with the margin the plays earned. How it is reached ›
Efficiency
Edge: Texas won 3 of 4
Texas moved the ball better, hit the bigger plays and was more disruptive. Oklahoma got more from each play.
Texaslonger bar = betterOklahoma
-
35%✓ Moved the ballsuccessful plays 34%
-
-0.08 Points per playwhat a play was worth ✓-0.02
-
1.37✓ Big playssize of the good plays 0.81
-
23%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 16%
More numbers
Texas ran 65 plays, Oklahoma 59. Each number is that team's offense; Oklahoma's column is also what Texas's defense allowed.
| Measure | Texas | Oklahoma | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPA / play | -0.08 | -0.02 | Oklahoma |
| Total PPA | -5.0 | -1.3 | Oklahoma |
| Success rate | 35.4% | 33.9% | Texas |
| Explosiveness | 1.37 | 0.81 | Texas |
| Havoc created | 22.8% | 15.9% | Texas |
- Success rate: how often a play did its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays were on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blew up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up. Counted from the play-by-play, so it is approximate.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play was worth to the offense. Total PPA adds up every play, and is what the Verdict compares with the score.
How to read this
- The four rows at the top compare the two offenses in this game; the longer bar is the better number, scaled within each row. A number at or below zero draws no bar.
- A check marks the better side of a row. The line above the rows counts them: it describes how the game was played, not who won it.
- Metrics explained ›
Top performers
Texas players by cumulative PPA in this game. Usage is the share of the team's plays of that type involving the player. Receiving is passing-play PPA for non-quarterbacks.
Passing
| Player | Pass usage | PPA | /play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning QB | 100% | +5.7 | +0.18 |
Rushing
| Player | Rush usage | PPA | /play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning QB | 17% | +1.4 | +0.27 |
| Raleek Brown RB | 17% | +0.1 | +0.02 |
| Derrek Cooper RB | 27% | -0.4 | -0.06 |
| Daylan Smothers RB | 40% | -0.8 | -0.07 |
Receiving
| Player | Target usage | PPA | /play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Coleman WR | 25% | +6.0 | +0.76 |
| Ryan Wingo WR | 12% | +3.7 | +0.93 |
| Emmett Mosley V WR | 22% | +3.2 | +0.46 |
| Jermaine Bishop Jr. WR | 6% | +1.9 | +0.93 |
By play type
| Measure | Texas | Oklahoma | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing PPA | +0.01 | -0.16 | Texas |
| Rushing success | 40.0% | 31.0% | Texas |
| Passing PPA | +0.18 | +0.16 | Texas |
| Passing success | 34.4% | 39.3% | Oklahoma |
| Standard downs PPA | +0.06 | -0.03 | Texas |
| Standard downs success | 40.9% | 44.2% | Oklahoma |
| Passing downs PPA | -0.36 | +0.01 | Oklahoma |
| Passing downs success | 23.8% | 6.2% | Texas |
Havoc detail — Texas defense: TFL 7, sacks 2, takeaways 0, breakups 4 on 57 snaps. Oklahoma defense: TFL 2, sacks 2, takeaways 2, breakups 4 on 63 snaps.
Drives
A scoring opportunity is a drive that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line or scores; points per opportunity is the points those drives produced divided by their number.
◀ TexasOklahoma ▶
By half
Shown because the game changed between halves: the per-play edge swung by 0.51 points a play (Texas +0.29 in the first half, -0.22 in the second). Overtime counts with the second half.
| Texas | Oklahoma | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2nd | 1st | 2nd | |
| PPA / play | +0.23 | -0.17 | -0.06 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 39% | 38% | 23% | 45% |
| Plays | 31 | 32 | 26 | 31 |
Recruiting
| Measure | Texas | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 class rank | 7 | 15 |
| 2026 class points | 291.18 | 252.55 |
| Talent composite | 985.2 #2 of 138 |
851.1 #17 of 138 |
Transfer portal · 22 in, 28 out
Arrivals (22)
| Player | From | ★ | Elig. | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Coleman WR | Auburn | 5 | Immediate | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Ian Geffrard DL | Arkansas | 4 | Immediate | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Bo Mascoe CB | Rutgers | 4 | Immediate | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Raleek Brown RB | Arizona State | 4 | Immediate | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Rasheem Biles LB | Pittsburgh | 4 | Immediate | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Hollywood Smothers RB | NC State | 4 | Immediate | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Melvin Siani OT | Wake Forest | 4 | Immediate | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Sterling Berkhalter WR | Wake Forest | 4 | Immediate | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Michael Masunas TE | Michigan State | 3 | Immediate | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Zion Williams DL | LSU | 3 | Immediate | Jan 8, 2026 |
+12 more not shown (22 total).
Departures (28)
| Player | To | ★ | Elig. | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintrevion Wisner RB | Florida State | 4 | Immediate | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Parker Livingstone WR | Oklahoma | 4 | Immediate | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Liona Lefau LB | Colorado | 4 | Immediate | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Kobe Black CB | undecided | 4 | Immediate | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Elijah Barnes LB | Kentucky | 4 | Immediate | Jan 11, 2026 |
| DeAndre Moore Jr. WR | Colorado | 4 | Immediate | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Nick Brooks IOL | Alabama | 4 | Immediate | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Warren Roberson S | undecided | 4 | Withdrawn | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Aaron Butler WR | undecided | 3 | Immediate | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Caleb Chester CB | Arizona State | 3 | Immediate | Jan 4, 2026 |
+18 more not shown (28 total).
2026 commits · 26
| Player | Hometown | ★ | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dia Bell QB | Fort Lauderdale, FL | 5 | 0.9903 |
| John Meredith III CB | Fort Worth, TX | 5 | 0.9897 |
| Tyler Atkinson LB | Loganville, GA | 5 | 0.9860 |
| Richard Wesley EDGE | Chatsworth, CA | 5 | 0.9851 |
| Jermaine Bishop ATH | Willis, TX | 4 | 0.9738 |
| Jamarion Carlton DL | Temple, TX | 4 | 0.9713 |
| John Turntine III OT | Fort Worth, TX | 4 | 0.9635 |
| James Johnson DL | Miami, FL | 4 | 0.9551 |
| Derrek Cooper RB | Hollywood, FL | 4 | 0.9529 |
| Kosi Okpala EDGE | Houston, TX | 4 | 0.9492 |
| Samari Matthews CB | Cornelius, NC | 4 | 0.9428 |
| Nicolas Robertson IOL | Spring, TX | 4 | 0.9166 |
| Kohen Brown WR | Waxahachie, TX | 4 | 0.9109 |
| Hayward Howard Jr. CB | New Orleans, LA | 4 | 0.9029 |
| Chris Stewart WR | Pearland, TX | 4 | 0.9015 |
+11 more not shown (26 total).
Returning production
Share of last season's production returning for Texas in 2026.
| Unit | % PPA | PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 72.1% | 187.5 | 58.0% |
| Passing | 85.4% | 73.6 | 97.9% |
| Receiving | 55.0% | 81.3 | 42.3% |
| Rushing | 126.4% | 32.6 | 27.8% |
A figure above 100% or below 0% is expected when last season's returning players had negative PPA in that phase, since PPA can be negative.