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Sat Oct 31, 6:30 PM CT · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
18%Our win chance82%
Our win chance: Texas 82% · Mississippi State 18% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor Texas
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Mississippi State +7.3 vs Texas +21.1 · week 8 ratings | Texas by 16.3 | Texas 88% |
| Elo Mississippi State 1555 vs Texas 1902 | Texas by 16.4 | Texas 88% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Mississippi State +9.1 vs Texas +23.6 | Texas by 17.1 | Texas 89% |
| SRS Mississippi State +9.6 vs Texas +18.9 | Texas by 11.8 | Texas 80% |
| Sagarin Mississippi State +79.1 vs Texas +90.2 | Texas by 14.8 | Texas 86% |
| Sonny Moore Mississippi State +77.7 vs Texas +86.9 | Texas by 13.2 | Texas 83% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Texas by 15.8 | Texas 87% |
| Record Texas 5-2, Mississippi State 4-3 | Texas (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Texas by 21 | Texas 94% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Texas 7 games, Mississippi State 7 games
Edge: Mississippi State wins 3 of 5
Mississippi State moves the ball better, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays. Texas stops plays better and is more disruptive.
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42% Moves the ballsuccessful plays ✓46%
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34%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 44%
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20%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 16%
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1.19 Big playson offense ✓1.25
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1.15 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.14
Run game, head to head · season to date
Texas's runs work 45% of the time; Mississippi State's run defense allows 42%. Mississippi State's runs work 46% of the time; Texas's run defense allows 34%.
More numbers
| Measure | Texas | Mississippi State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 42.0% | 45.5% | Mississippi State |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.19 | 1.25 | Mississippi State |
| Def. success rate allowed | 34.4% | 44.1% | Texas |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.15 | 1.14 | Mississippi State |
| Havoc created | 19.8% | 15.5% | Texas |
- Run game, success rate: Texas offense 44.6% · Mississippi State defense allows 42.2% · edge: even
- Run game, success rate: Mississippi State offense 46.4% · Texas defense allows 33.8% · edge: Texas
- Run game, PPA per play: Texas offense +0.01 · Mississippi State defense allows -0.01 · edge: Mississippi State
- Run game, PPA per play: Mississippi State offense +0.12 · Texas defense allows -0.06 · edge: Texas
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor Texas (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Texas by 16.3, Elo has Texas by 16.4, ESPN FPI has Texas by 17.1, SRS has Texas by 11.8, Sagarin has Texas by 14.8, Sonny Moore has Texas by 13.2, The Margin has Texas by 15.8, and Market has Texas by 21.0. They are within 9.2 points of each other.