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Sat Oct 31, 6:30 PM CT · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
72%Our win chance28%
Our win chance: Ohio State 72% · USC 28% · experimental, see how it is tested
Kickoff corrected (source: ohiostatebuckeyes.com, checked Oct 21, 2026).
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor Ohio State
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Ohio State +26.8 vs USC +15.3 · week 8 ratings | Ohio State by 9 | Ohio State 74% |
| Elo Ohio State 2069 vs USC 1752 | Ohio State by 10.2 | Ohio State 77% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Ohio State +28.2 vs USC +14.9 | Ohio State by 10.8 | Ohio State 78% |
| SRS Ohio State +21.5 vs USC +9.5 | Ohio State by 9.5 | Ohio State 75% |
| Sagarin Ohio State +94.0 vs USC +84.1 | Ohio State by 6.0 | Ohio State 67% |
| Sonny Moore Ohio State +93.5 vs USC +75.0 | Ohio State by 14.5 | Ohio State 85% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Ohio State by 13.7 | Ohio State 84% |
| Record USC 6-2, Ohio State 6-1 | Ohio State (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Ohio State by 7 | Ohio State 69% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · USC 8 games, Ohio State 7 games
Edge: Ohio State wins 4 of 5
Ohio State stops plays better, is more disruptive, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays. USC moves the ball better.
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51%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 50%
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40% Stops playssuccessful plays allowed ✓35%
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13% Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers ✓18%
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1.17 Big playson offense ✓1.26
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1.29 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.25
Run game, head to head · season to date
USC's runs work 46% of the time; Ohio State's run defense allows 39%. Ohio State's runs work 47% of the time; USC's run defense allows 41%.
More numbers
| Measure | USC | Ohio State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 51.0% | 50.5% | USC |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.17 | 1.26 | Ohio State |
| Def. success rate allowed | 40.4% | 35.2% | Ohio State |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.29 | 1.25 | Ohio State |
| Havoc created | 12.8% | 18.2% | Ohio State |
- Run game, success rate: USC offense 46.0% · Ohio State defense allows 39.4% · edge: even
- Run game, success rate: Ohio State offense 47.0% · USC defense allows 41.1% · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: USC offense +0.06 · Ohio State defense allows -0.11 · edge: Ohio State
- Run game, PPA per play: Ohio State offense +0.08 · USC defense allows +0.00 · edge: USC
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor Ohio State (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Ohio State by 9.0, Elo has Ohio State by 10.2, ESPN FPI has Ohio State by 10.8, SRS has Ohio State by 9.5, Sagarin has Ohio State by 6.0, Sonny Moore has Ohio State by 14.5, The Margin has Ohio State by 13.7, and Market has Ohio State by 7.0. They are within 8.5 points of each other.
Last 5 meetings
USC leads 13–10–1 · last: Ohio State 24–7, 2017
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Ohio State 24–7 | neutral site |
| 2009 | USC 18–15 | Ohio Stadium |
| 2008 | USC 35–3 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |
| 1990 | USC 35–26 | — |
| 1989 | USC 42–3 | — |