Result
Final: Mississippi State 31, Missouri 24
Closest: Our model (Mississippi State by 2.6, missed by 4.4). 2 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Mississippi State by 1.2Toss-up
SP+ favors Missouri; Elo and Our model favor Mississippi State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Mississippi State by 3.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Missouri by 0.5, Elo has Mississippi State by 1.4, and Our model has Mississippi State by 2.6. The furthest apart are 3.1 points from each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Missouri +15.0 vs Mississippi State +12.0 | Missouri by 0.5 ✗ | 7.5 |
| Elo Missouri 1690 vs Mississippi State 1663 | Mississippi State by 1.4 ✓ | 5.6 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Missouri +12.1 vs Mississippi State +12.3 | Mississippi State by 2.6 ✓ | 4.4 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Mississippi State by 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | Mississippi State by 1.2 ✓ | 5.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Missouri leads 4–2 · last: Missouri 49–27, 2025 · Missouri has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Missouri 49–27 | Memorial Stadium |
| 2024 | Missouri 39–20 | Davis Wade Stadium |
| 2020 | Mississippi State 51–32 | Davis Wade Stadium |
| 2015 | Mississippi State 31–13 | Memorial Stadium |
| 1984 | Missouri 47–30 | — |