Result
Final: SMU 34, Missouri State 24
Closest: Elo (SMU by 19.5, missed by 9.5). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: SMU by 27.2Strong
All three models favor SMU. The line, shown for comparison only, has SMU by 34.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has SMU by 31.9, Elo has SMU by 19.5, and Our model has SMU by 30.2. They are within 12.4 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Missouri State -17.4 vs SMU +12.0 | SMU by 31.9 ✓ | 21.9 |
| Elo Closest Missouri State 1281 vs SMU 1706 | SMU by 19.5 ✓ | 9.5 |
| Our model · experimental Missouri State -14.6 vs SMU +13.0 | SMU by 30.2 ✓ | 20.2 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | SMU by 34.5 | 24.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | SMU by 27.2 ✓ | 17.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 1 meeting
SMU leads 1–0 · last: SMU 28–10, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | SMU 28–10 | Plaster Sports Complex |
Team pages
Missouri StateSMU ›Every game's projections ›