Result
Final: Indiana 29, Northwestern 23
Closest: Our model (Indiana by 15, missed by 9.0). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Indiana by 19.3Strong
All three models favor Indiana. The line, shown for comparison only, has Indiana by 23.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Indiana by 20.6, Elo has Indiana by 22.3, and Our model has Indiana by 15.0. They are within 7.3 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Northwestern +7.7 vs Indiana +25.8 | Indiana by 20.6 ✓ | 14.6 |
| Elo Northwestern 1625 vs Indiana 2121 | Indiana by 22.3 ✓ | 16.3 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Northwestern +1.5 vs Indiana +14.0 | Indiana by 15 ✓ | 9.0 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Indiana by 23.5 | 17.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Indiana by 19.3 ✓ | 13.3 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Northwestern leads 47–36–1 · last: Indiana 41–24, 2024 · Indiana has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Indiana 41–24 | neutral site |
| 2019 | Indiana 34–3 | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) |
| 2016 | Northwestern 24–14 | Ryan Field |
| 2012 | Northwestern 44–29 | Ryan Field |
| 2011 | Northwestern 59–38 | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) |