Result
Final: Oregon 41, USC 27
Closest: Our model (Oregon by 4.9, missed by 9.1). 2 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Oregon by 1.2Toss-up
SP+ and Our model favor Oregon; Elo favors USC. The line, shown for comparison only, has USC by 1.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Oregon by 0.3, Elo has USC by 1.7, and Our model has Oregon by 4.9. The furthest apart are 6.6 points from each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Oregon +24.4 vs USC +21.6 | Oregon by 0.3 ✓ | 13.7 |
| Elo Oregon 1838 vs USC 1817 | USC by 1.7 ✗ | 15.7 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Oregon +21.9 vs USC +14.5 | Oregon by 4.9 ✓ | 9.1 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | USC by 1.5 | 15.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | Oregon by 1.2 ✓ | 12.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
USC leads 39–23–2 · last: Oregon 42–27, 2025 · Oregon has won 4 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oregon 42–27 | Autzen Stadium |
| 2023 | Oregon 36–27 | Autzen Stadium |
| 2020 | Oregon 31–24 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |
| 2019 | Oregon 56–24 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |
| 2016 | USC 45–20 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |