Result
Final: Kentucky 45, South Alabama 21
Closest: SP+ (Kentucky by 21.1, missed by 2.9). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Kentucky by 14.6Strong
All three models favor Kentucky.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Kentucky by 21.1, Elo has Kentucky by 7.0, and Our model has Kentucky by 15.6. They are within 14.1 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest South Alabama -12.1 vs Kentucky +6.5 | Kentucky by 21.1 ✓ | 2.9 |
| Elo South Alabama 1393 vs Kentucky 1506 | Kentucky by 7.0 ✓ | 17.0 |
| Our model · experimental South Alabama -9.2 vs Kentucky +3.9 | Kentucky by 15.6 ✓ | 8.4 |
| Line (benchmark) no pregame line | n/a | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Kentucky by 14.6 ✓ | 9.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Team pages
South AlabamaKentucky ›Every game's projections ›