Result
Final: Alabama 49, South Carolina 18
Closest: Our model (Alabama by 16.1, missed by 14.9). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Alabama by 11.1Strong
All three models favor Alabama. The line, shown for comparison only, has Alabama by 11.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Alabama by 9.0, Elo has Alabama by 8.2, and Our model has Alabama by 16.1. They are within 7.9 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ South Carolina +13.0 vs Alabama +19.5 | Alabama by 9 ✓ | 22.0 |
| Elo South Carolina 1721 vs Alabama 1863 | Alabama by 8.2 ✓ | 22.8 |
| Our model · experimental Closest South Carolina +7.6 vs Alabama +21.2 | Alabama by 16.1 ✓ | 14.9 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Alabama by 11.5 | 19.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Alabama by 11.1 ✓ | 19.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Alabama leads 15–3 · last: Alabama 29–22, 2025 · Alabama has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Alabama 29–22 | Williams-Brice Stadium |
| 2024 | Alabama 27–25 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2019 | Alabama 47–23 | Williams-Brice Stadium |
| 2010 | South Carolina 35–21 | Williams-Brice Stadium |
| 2009 | Alabama 20–6 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
Team pages
South CarolinaAlabama ›Every game's projections ›