Result
Final: Utah 31, Iowa State 17
Closest: SP+ (Utah by 8.7, missed by 5.3). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Utah by 6.6Lean
All three models favor Utah. The line, shown for comparison only, has Utah by 11.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Utah by 8.7, Elo has Utah by 6.5, and Our model has Utah by 4.7. They are within 4.0 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest Utah +17.0 vs Iowa State +5.8 | Utah by 8.7 ✓ | 5.3 |
| Elo Utah 1907 vs Iowa State 1683 | Utah by 6.5 ✓ | 7.5 |
| Our model · experimental Utah +9.6 vs Iowa State +2.5 | Utah by 4.7 ✓ | 9.3 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Utah by 11.5 | 2.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | Utah by 6.6 ✓ | 7.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Iowa State leads 5–1 · last: Iowa State 31–28, 2024
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Iowa State 31–28 | Rice-Eccles Stadium |
| 2010 | Utah 68–27 | Jack Trice Stadium |
| 1976 | Iowa State 44–14 | — |
| 1975 | Iowa State 31–3 | — |
| 1972 | Iowa State 44–22 | — |
Team pages
Utah ›Iowa StateEvery game's projections ›