Result
Final: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20
Closest: Our model (Penn State by 14.7, missed by 18.7). 0 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Penn State by 15.9Strong
All three models favor Penn State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Penn State by 10.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Penn State by 16.5, Elo has Penn State by 16.6, and Our model has Penn State by 14.7. They are within 1.9 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Wisconsin +5.1 vs Penn State +19.1 | Penn State by 16.5 ✗ | 20.5 |
| Elo Wisconsin 1580 vs Penn State 1933 | Penn State by 16.6 ✗ | 20.6 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Wisconsin -0.6 vs Penn State +11.6 | Penn State by 14.7 ✗ | 18.7 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Penn State by 10.5 | 14.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Penn State by 15.9 ✗ | 19.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Penn State leads 12–9 · last: Penn State 28–13, 2024 · Penn State has won 6 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Penn State 28–13 | Camp Randall Stadium |
| 2021 | Penn State 16–10 | Camp Randall Stadium |
| 2018 | Penn State 22–10 | Beaver Stadium |
| 2016 | Penn State 38–31 | neutral site |
| 2013 | Penn State 31–24 | Camp Randall Stadium |