Result
Final: Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23
Closest: Elo (Alabama by 7.7, missed by 25.3). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Alabama by 6.9Lean
All three models favor Alabama. The line, shown for comparison only, has Alabama by 4.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Alabama by 5.4, Elo has Alabama by 7.7, and Our model has Alabama by 7.6. They are within 2.3 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Alabama +23.0 vs Mississippi State +15.1 | Alabama by 5.4 ✓ | 27.6 |
| Elo Closest Alabama 1929 vs Mississippi State 1674 | Alabama by 7.7 ✓ | 25.3 |
| Our model · experimental Alabama +21.7 vs Mississippi State +11.6 | Alabama by 7.6 ✓ | 25.4 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Alabama by 4.5 | 28.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | Alabama by 6.9 ✓ | 26.1 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Alabama leads 86–17–3 · last: Alabama 40–17, 2023 · Alabama has won 16 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Alabama 40–17 | Davis Wade Stadium |
| 2022 | Alabama 30–6 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2021 | Alabama 49–9 | Davis Wade Stadium |
| 2020 | Alabama 41–0 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2019 | Alabama 38–7 | Davis Wade Stadium |