Result
Final: Tennessee 24, Auburn 14
Closest: SP+ (Tennessee by 8.8, missed by 1.2). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Tennessee by 7.1Strong
All three models favor Tennessee. The line, shown for comparison only, has Tennessee by 7.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Tennessee by 8.8, Elo has Tennessee by 6.4, and Our model has Tennessee by 6.1. They are within 2.7 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest Auburn +11.4 vs Tennessee +17.7 | Tennessee by 8.8 ✓ | 1.2 |
| Elo Auburn 1679 vs Tennessee 1776 | Tennessee by 6.4 ✓ | 3.6 |
| Our model · experimental Auburn +10.1 vs Tennessee +13.7 | Tennessee by 6.1 ✓ | 3.9 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Tennessee by 7.5 | 2.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Tennessee by 7.1 ✓ | 2.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Auburn leads 28–22–3 · last: Auburn 30–17, 2020
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Auburn 30–17 | Jordan-Hare Stadium |
| 2018 | Tennessee 30–24 | Jordan-Hare Stadium |
| 2013 | Auburn 55–23 | Neyland Stadium |
| 2009 | Auburn 26–22 | Neyland Stadium |
| 2008 | Auburn 14–12 | Jordan-Hare Stadium |