Result
Final: BYU 17, TCU 10
Closest: Our call (BYU by 6.1, missed by 0.9). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: BYU by 6.1Lean
All three models favor BYU. The line, shown for comparison only, has BYU by 6.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has BYU by 5.6, Elo has BYU by 0.9, and Our model has BYU by 11.7. They are within 10.8 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ BYU +16.3 vs TCU +8.2 | BYU by 5.6 ✓ | 1.4 |
| Elo BYU 1692 vs TCU 1607 | BYU by 0.9 ✓ | 6.1 |
| Our model · experimental BYU +18.3 vs TCU +4.0 | BYU by 11.7 ✓ | 4.7 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | BYU by 6.5 | 0.5 |
| Our call Closest average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | BYU by 6.1 ✓ | 0.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
TCU leads 7–6 · last: BYU 44–13, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | BYU 44–13 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |
| 2023 | TCU 44–11 | Amon G. Carter Stadium |
| 2011 | TCU 38–28 | neutral site |
| 2010 | TCU 31–3 | Amon G. Carter Stadium |
| 2009 | TCU 38–7 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |