Result
Final: Missouri 45, Florida 17
Closest: Elo (Florida by 0.4, missed by 28.4). 0 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Florida by 1.2Toss-up
All three models favor Florida. The line, shown for comparison only, has Florida by 5.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Florida by 2.3, Elo has Florida by 0.4, and Our model has Florida by 0.8. They are within 1.9 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Florida +18.5 vs Missouri +13.7 | Florida by 2.3 ✗ | 30.3 |
| Elo Closest Florida 1751 vs Missouri 1679 | Florida by 0.4 ✗ | 28.4 |
| Our model · experimental Florida +15.5 vs Missouri +12.2 | Florida by 0.8 ✗ | 28.8 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Florida by 5.5 | 33.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | Florida by 1.2 ✗ | 29.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Missouri leads 7–6 · last: Missouri 33–31, 2023
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Missouri 33–31 | Memorial Stadium |
| 2022 | Florida 24–17 | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium |
| 2021 | Missouri 24–23 | Memorial Stadium |
| 2020 | Florida 41–17 | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium |
| 2019 | Florida 23–6 | Memorial Stadium |