Result
Final: NC State 31, Louisville 28
Closest: Our model (NC State by 0.5, missed by 2.5). 1 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Louisville by 2.5Toss-up
SP+ and Elo favor Louisville; Our model favors NC State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Louisville by 6.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Louisville by 4.0, Elo has Louisville by 3.9, and Our model has NC State by 0.5. The furthest apart are 4.5 points from each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Louisville +9.9 vs NC State +3.4 | Louisville by 4 ✗ | 7.0 |
| Elo Louisville 1674 vs NC State 1514 | Louisville by 3.9 ✗ | 6.9 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Louisville +9.2 vs NC State +7.1 | NC State by 0.5 ✓ | 2.5 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Louisville by 6.5 | 9.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | Louisville by 2.5 ✗ | 5.5 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Louisville leads 9–4 · last: Louisville 13–10, 2023 · Louisville has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Louisville 13–10 | Carter-Finley Stadium |
| 2022 | Louisville 25–10 | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium |
| 2021 | NC State 28–13 | Carter-Finley Stadium |
| 2019 | Louisville 34–20 | Carter-Finley Stadium |
| 2018 | NC State 52–10 | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium |