Result
Final: Minnesota 20, Michigan 14
Closest: SP+ (Michigan by 5.3, missed by 11.3). 0 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Michigan by 7.0Strong
All three models favor Michigan. The line, shown for comparison only, has Michigan by 7.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Michigan by 5.3, Elo has Michigan by 6.8, and Our model has Michigan by 9.0. They are within 3.7 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest Michigan +14.3 vs Minnesota +6.5 | Michigan by 5.3 ✗ | 11.3 |
| Elo Michigan 1739 vs Minnesota 1506 | Michigan by 6.8 ✗ | 12.8 |
| Our model · experimental Michigan +13.3 vs Minnesota +1.9 | Michigan by 9 ✗ | 15.0 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Michigan by 7.5 | 13.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Michigan by 7.0 ✗ | 13.0 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Michigan leads 78–25–3 · last: Michigan 27–24, 2024 · Michigan has won 5 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan 27–24 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2023 | Michigan 52–10 | Huntington Bank Stadium |
| 2020 | Michigan 49–24 | Huntington Bank Stadium |
| 2017 | Michigan 33–10 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2015 | Michigan 29–26 | Huntington Bank Stadium |
Team pages
Michigan ›MinnesotaEvery game's projections ›