Result
Final: Northwestern 34, Penn State 13
Closest: Our model (Penn State by 1.8, missed by 22.8). 0 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Penn State by 5.6Lean
All three models favor Penn State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Penn State by 4.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Penn State by 7.1, Elo has Penn State by 7.9, and Our model has Penn State by 1.8. They are within 6.1 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Penn State +16.9 vs Northwestern +7.3 | Penn State by 7.1 ✗ | 28.1 |
| Elo Penn State 1901 vs Northwestern 1640 | Penn State by 7.9 ✗ | 28.9 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Penn State +8.1 vs Northwestern +3.8 | Penn State by 1.8 ✗ | 22.8 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Penn State by 4.5 | 25.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | Penn State by 5.6 ✗ | 26.6 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Penn State leads 16–6 · last: Northwestern 22–21, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Northwestern 22–21 | Beaver Stadium |
| 2023 | Penn State 41–13 | Ryan Field |
| 2022 | Penn State 17–7 | Beaver Stadium |
| 2017 | Penn State 31–7 | Ryan Field |
| 2015 | Northwestern 23–21 | Ryan Field |