Result
Final: Boise State 37, Utah State 18
Closest: SP+ (Boise State by 19.4, missed by 0.4). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Boise State by 16.1Strong
All three models favor Boise State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Boise State by 21.0.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Boise State by 19.4, Elo has Boise State by 14.1, and Our model has Boise State by 14.9. They are within 5.3 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest Utah State -9.3 vs Boise State +7.6 | Boise State by 19.4 ✓ | 0.4 |
| Elo Utah State 1374 vs Boise State 1665 | Boise State by 14.1 ✓ | 4.9 |
| Our model · experimental Utah State -6.7 vs Boise State +5.8 | Boise State by 14.9 ✓ | 4.1 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Boise State by 21 | 2.0 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Boise State by 16.1 ✓ | 2.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Team pages
Utah StateBoise State ›Every game's projections ›