The prediction
Our call: Alabama by 6.6Lean
All three models favor Alabama. The line, shown for comparison only, has Alabama by 6.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Alabama by 3.8, Elo has Alabama by 6.1, and Our model has Alabama by 10.0. They are within 6.2 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Alabama +23.0 vs Tennessee +16.7 | Alabama by 3.8 |
| Elo Alabama 1990 vs Tennessee 1776 | Alabama by 6.1 |
| Our model · experimental Alabama +25.5 vs Tennessee +13.1 | Alabama by 10 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Alabama by 6.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | Alabama by 6.6 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
As of Sat Oct 10, 5:00 PM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Cayden Jones LBOut · season
- Jeremiah Beaman DLOut · season
As of Sat Oct 10, 1:45 PM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Edrees Farooq DBOut · season
- Ethan Davis TE · torn ACLOut · season
- Jaedon Harmon LBOut · season
- Joakim Dodson WR · legOut · season
Last 5 meetings
Alabama leads 61–39–7 · last: Alabama 37–20, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Alabama 37–20 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2024 | Tennessee 24–17 | Neyland Stadium |
| 2023 | Alabama 34–20 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2022 | Tennessee 52–49 | Neyland Stadium |
| 2021 | Alabama 52–24 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |