The prediction
Our call: Texas Tech by 18.9Strong
All three models favor Texas Tech. The line, shown for comparison only, has Texas Tech by 12.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Texas Tech by 20.5, Elo has Texas Tech by 18.4, and Our model has Texas Tech by 17.7. They are within 2.8 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Arizona State +3.6 vs Texas Tech +21.6 | Texas Tech by 20.5 |
| Elo Arizona State 1464 vs Texas Tech 1862 | Texas Tech by 18.4 |
| Our model · experimental Arizona State +0.7 vs Texas Tech +15.9 | Texas Tech by 17.7 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Texas Tech by 12.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Texas Tech by 18.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
Arizona State
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
As of Wed Oct 7, 6:32 AM CT · AI-assisted, from public reporting
- Cameron Dickey RB · high-ankle sprainOut
Last 5 meetings
tied 3–3 · last: Arizona State 26–22, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arizona State 26–22 | Mountain America Stadium |
| 2024 | Texas Tech 30–22 | Jones AT&T Stadium |
| 2017 | Texas Tech 52–45 | Jones AT&T Stadium |
| 2016 | Arizona State 68–55 | Mountain America Stadium |
| 2013 | Texas Tech 37–23 | neutral site |
Team pages
Arizona StateTexas Tech ›Every game's projections ›