The prediction
Our call: Miami by 20.2Strong
All three models favor Miami. The line, shown for comparison only, has Miami by 16.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Miami by 24.5, Elo has Miami by 18.3, and Our model has Miami by 17.9. They are within 6.6 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Florida State +5.8 vs Miami +27.8 | Miami by 24.5 |
| Elo Florida State 1598 vs Miami 1993 | Miami by 18.3 |
| Our model · experimental Florida State +7.9 vs Miami +23.3 | Miami by 17.9 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Miami by 16.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Miami by 20.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
As of Fri Oct 9, 4:00 PM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Daylen Green LBOut · season
As of Fri Oct 9, 6:16 AM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- CharMar Brown RB · kneeOut · season
- Josh Moore WR · upper bodyOut · season
- Joshua Moore WROut · season
- Max Buchanan OG · legOut
- Marquise Lightfoot DEQuestionable
Last 5 meetings
Miami leads 37–33 · last: Miami 28–22, 2025 · Miami has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami 28–22 | Doak Campbell Stadium |
| 2024 | Miami 36–14 | Hard Rock Stadium |
| 2023 | Florida State 27–20 | Doak Campbell Stadium |
| 2022 | Florida State 45–3 | Hard Rock Stadium |
| 2021 | Florida State 31–28 | Doak Campbell Stadium |