The prediction
Our call: LSU by 11.4Strong
All three models favor LSU. The line, shown for comparison only, has LSU by 11.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has LSU by 11.6, Elo has LSU by 12.4, and Our model has LSU by 10.3. They are within 2.1 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Mississippi State +12.6 vs LSU +21.7 | LSU by 11.6 |
| Elo Mississippi State 1612 vs LSU 1859 | LSU by 12.4 |
| Our model · experimental Mississippi State +10.7 vs LSU +18.5 | LSU by 10.3 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | LSU by 11.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | LSU by 11.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
As of Fri Oct 9, 6:18 AM CT · AI-assisted, from public reporting
- Canon Boone CQuestionable
- Fluff Bothwell RBQuestionable
- Jalen Smith LBQuestionable
- Kamario Taylor QB · right footQuestionable
As of Sat Oct 10, 4:30 PM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Charles Ross II LB · torn ACLOut · season
- Dashawn Spears S · ACLOut · season
- Phillip Wright III WROut · season
Last 5 meetings
LSU leads 74–37–3 · last: LSU 41–14, 2023 · LSU has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | LSU 41–14 | Davis Wade Stadium |
| 2022 | LSU 31–16 | Tiger Stadium (LA) |
| 2021 | LSU 28–25 | Davis Wade Stadium |
| 2020 | Mississippi State 44–34 | Tiger Stadium (LA) |
| 2019 | LSU 36–13 | Davis Wade Stadium |