The prediction
Our call: Michigan by 4.1Lean
SP+ and Our model favor Michigan; Elo favors Penn State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Michigan by 6.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Michigan by 6.0, Elo has Penn State by 0.8, and Our model has Michigan by 7.2. The furthest apart are 8.0 points from each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Penn State +9.6 vs Michigan +13.1 | Michigan by 6 |
| Elo Penn State 1802 vs Michigan 1719 | Penn State by 0.8 |
| Our model · experimental Penn State +7.1 vs Michigan +11.8 | Michigan by 7.2 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Michigan by 6.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | Michigan by 4.1 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
As of Sat Oct 10, 4:30 PM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Koby Howard WROut · season
- Max Granville DEOut · season
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
Michigan leads 17–10 · last: Michigan 24–15, 2023 · Michigan has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Michigan 24–15 | Beaver Stadium |
| 2022 | Michigan 41–17 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2021 | Michigan 21–17 | Beaver Stadium |
| 2020 | Penn State 27–17 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2019 | Penn State 28–21 | Beaver Stadium |