Result
Final: Ohio State 42, Illinois 19
Closest: Our call (Ohio State by 22.9, missed by 0.1). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Ohio State by 22.9Strong
All three models favor Ohio State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Ohio State by 27.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Ohio State by 21.1, Elo has Ohio State by 20.3, and Our model has Ohio State by 27.2. They are within 6.9 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Illinois +11.1 vs Ohio State +29.7 | Ohio State by 21.1 ✓ | 1.9 |
| Elo Illinois 1587 vs Ohio State 2032 | Ohio State by 20.3 ✓ | 2.7 |
| Our model · experimental Illinois +0.1 vs Ohio State +24.8 | Ohio State by 27.2 ✓ | 4.2 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Ohio State by 27.5 | 4.5 |
| Our call Closest average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Ohio State by 22.9 ✓ | 0.1 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Ohio State leads 70–30–4 · last: Ohio State 34–16, 2025 · Ohio State has won 10 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ohio State 34–16 | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) |
| 2017 | Ohio State 52–14 | Ohio Stadium |
| 2015 | Ohio State 28–3 | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) |
| 2014 | Ohio State 55–14 | Ohio Stadium |
| 2013 | Ohio State 60–35 | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) |