Result
Final: Iowa 20, Michigan 19
Closest: Elo (Iowa by 1.7, missed by 0.7). 1 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Michigan by 0.9Toss-up
SP+ and Our model favor Michigan; Elo favors Iowa. The line, shown for comparison only, has Michigan by 4.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Michigan by 0.3, Elo has Iowa by 1.7, and Our model has Michigan by 4.2. The furthest apart are 5.9 points from each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Iowa +17.3 vs Michigan +15.1 | Michigan by 0.3 ✗ | 1.3 |
| Elo Closest Iowa 1841 vs Michigan 1735 | Iowa by 1.7 ✓ | 0.7 |
| Our model · experimental Iowa +10.9 vs Michigan +12.6 | Michigan by 4.2 ✗ | 5.2 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Michigan by 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | Michigan by 0.9 ✗ | 1.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Michigan leads 45–15–4 · last: Michigan 26–0, 2023 · Michigan has won 4 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Michigan 26–0 | neutral site |
| 2022 | Michigan 27–14 | Kinnick Stadium |
| 2021 | Michigan 42–3 | neutral site |
| 2019 | Michigan 10–3 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2016 | Iowa 14–13 | Kinnick Stadium |