Result
Final: Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27
Closest: Our model (Louisville by 7.1, missed by 10.1). 0 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Louisville by 9.6Strong
All three models favor Louisville. The line, shown for comparison only, has Louisville by 13.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Louisville by 12.2, Elo has Louisville by 9.5, and Our model has Louisville by 7.1. They are within 5.1 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Wake Forest +3.6 vs Louisville +13.3 | Louisville by 12.2 ✗ | 15.2 |
| Elo Wake Forest 1514 vs Louisville 1690 | Louisville by 9.5 ✗ | 12.5 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Wake Forest +6.1 vs Louisville +10.7 | Louisville by 7.1 ✗ | 10.1 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Louisville by 13.5 | 16.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Louisville by 9.6 ✗ | 12.6 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Louisville leads 7–3 · last: Louisville 48–21, 2022
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Louisville 48–21 | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium |
| 2021 | Wake Forest 37–34 | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium |
| 2020 | Louisville 45–21 | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium |
| 2019 | Louisville 62–59 | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium |
| 2018 | Wake Forest 56–35 | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium |