Result
Final: Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26
Closest: SP+ (Notre Dame by 22.6, missed by 11.6). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Notre Dame by 24.6Strong
All three models favor Notre Dame. The line, shown for comparison only, has Notre Dame by 21.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Notre Dame by 22.6, Elo has Notre Dame by 25.0, and Our model has Notre Dame by 26.2. They are within 3.6 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest Notre Dame +28.1 vs North Carolina +3.0 | Notre Dame by 22.6 ✓ | 11.6 |
| Elo Notre Dame 2084 vs North Carolina 1396 | Notre Dame by 25.0 ✓ | 14.0 |
| Our model · experimental Notre Dame +29.2 vs North Carolina +0.6 | Notre Dame by 26.2 ✓ | 15.2 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Notre Dame by 21.5 | 10.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Notre Dame by 24.6 ✓ | 13.6 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Notre Dame leads 21–2 · last: Notre Dame 45–32, 2022 · Notre Dame has won 5 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Notre Dame 45–32 | Kenan Stadium |
| 2021 | Notre Dame 44–34 | Notre Dame Stadium |
| 2020 | Notre Dame 31–17 | Kenan Stadium |
| 2017 | Notre Dame 33–10 | Kenan Stadium |
| 2014 | Notre Dame 50–43 | Notre Dame Stadium |
Team pages
Notre Dame ›North CarolinaEvery game's projections ›