Result
Final: Houston 27, UCF 17
Closest: Our model (Houston by 12, missed by 2.0). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Houston by 7.2Strong
All three models favor Houston. The line, shown for comparison only, has Houston by 10.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Houston by 5.9, Elo has Houston by 3.8, and Our model has Houston by 12.0. They are within 8.2 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ UCF +8.7 vs Houston +12.1 | Houston by 5.9 ✓ | 4.1 |
| Elo UCF 1503 vs Houston 1535 | Houston by 3.8 ✓ | 6.2 |
| Our model · experimental Closest UCF +1.3 vs Houston +10.8 | Houston by 12 ✓ | 2.0 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Houston by 10.5 | 0.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Houston by 7.2 ✓ | 2.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
UCF leads 8–4 · last: Houston 30–27, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Houston 30–27 | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| 2023 | UCF 27–13 | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| 2020 | UCF 44–21 | TDECU Stadium |
| 2019 | UCF 44–29 | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| 2016 | Houston 31–24 | TDECU Stadium |