Result
Final: Florida State 38, Virginia 7
Closest: Our model (Florida State by 2.3, missed by 28.7). 1 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Virginia by 2.5Toss-up
SP+ and Elo favor Virginia; Our model favors Florida State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Virginia by 1.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Virginia by 6.2, Elo has Virginia by 3.7, and Our model has Florida State by 2.3. The furthest apart are 8.5 points from each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Virginia +14.4 vs Florida State +5.7 | Virginia by 6.2 ✗ | 37.2 |
| Elo Virginia 1698 vs Florida State 1544 | Virginia by 3.7 ✗ | 34.7 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Virginia +7.0 vs Florida State +6.8 | Florida State by 2.3 ✓ | 28.7 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Virginia by 1.5 | 32.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | Virginia by 2.5 ✗ | 33.5 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Florida State leads 15–5 · last: Virginia 46–38, 2025 · Virginia has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Virginia 46–38 | Scott Stadium |
| 2019 | Virginia 31–24 | Scott Stadium |
| 2014 | Florida State 34–20 | Doak Campbell Stadium |
| 2011 | Virginia 14–13 | Doak Campbell Stadium |
| 2010 | Florida State 34–14 | Scott Stadium |