Result
Final: USC 25, Washington 21
Closest: Elo (USC by 4.5, missed by 0.5). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: USC by 7.8Strong
All three models favor USC. The line, shown for comparison only, has USC by 10.0.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has USC by 8.2, Elo has USC by 4.5, and Our model has USC by 10.8. They are within 6.3 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Washington +12.1 vs USC +17.8 | USC by 8.2 ✓ | 4.2 |
| Elo Closest Washington 1735 vs USC 1784 | USC by 4.5 ✓ | 0.5 |
| Our model · experimental Washington +6.8 vs USC +15.0 | USC by 10.8 ✓ | 6.8 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | USC by 10 | 6.0 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | USC by 7.8 ✓ | 3.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
USC leads 52–32–4 · last: Washington 26–21, 2024 · Washington has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Washington 26–21 | Husky Stadium |
| 2023 | Washington 52–42 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |
| 2019 | Washington 28–14 | Husky Stadium |
| 2016 | USC 26–13 | Husky Stadium |
| 2015 | Washington 17–12 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |