Result
Final: Northwestern 45, Ball State 14
Closest: Our call (Northwestern by 29.7, missed by 1.3). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Northwestern by 29.7Strong
All three models favor Northwestern (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot).
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Northwestern by 34.8, Elo has Northwestern by 28.7, and Our model has Northwestern by 25.7. They are within 9.1 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Ball State -25.0 vs Northwestern +7.3 · week 5 ratings | Northwestern by 34.8 ✓ | 3.8 |
| Elo Ball State 1065 vs Northwestern 1720 | Northwestern by 28.7 ✓ | 2.3 |
| Our model · experimental Ball State -17.4 vs Northwestern +5.9 | Northwestern by 25.7 ✓ | 5.3 |
| Line (benchmark) no pregame line | n/a | – |
| Our call Closest average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Northwestern by 29.7 ✓ | 1.3 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Team pages
Ball StateNorthwestern ›Every game's projections ›