Week 6 in review · CFB · The Sports Wire

Flattered and undersold

Flattered · the score ran ahead of the play by more than 7 points

Oregon vs UCLA, 15–17 L-2 vs -23 implied · +21

The scoreboard flattered Oregon: the -2 margin ran 21 points ahead of the -23 implied by per-play quality (PPA (expected points added per play) -0.51 vs -0.12, success rate 29% vs 35%) (UCLA turned it over 3 times).
Penn State vs USC, 23–31 L-8 vs -25 implied · +17

The scoreboard flattered Penn State: the -8 margin ran 17 points ahead of the -25 implied by per-play quality (PPA (expected points added per play) +0.04 vs +0.44, success rate 38% vs 50%).
Missouri vs Texas A&M, 27–6 W+21 vs +6 implied · +15

The scoreboard flattered Missouri: the +21 margin ran 15 points ahead of the +6 implied by per-play quality (PPA (expected points added per play) -0.02 vs -0.14, success rate 37% vs 27%) (Texas A&M turned it over twice).
Oklahoma State vs UCF, 42–28 W+14 vs -1 implied · +15

The scoreboard flattered Oklahoma State: the +14 margin ran 15 points ahead of the -1 implied by per-play quality (PPA (expected points added per play) +0.22 vs +0.18, success rate 54% vs 44%) (UCF turned it over once).

Undersold · the score ran behind the play by more than 7 points

Houston at Kansas State, 35–16 W+19 vs +29 implied · -10

The scoreboard undersold Houston: the +19 margin ran 10 points behind the +29 implied by per-play quality (PPA (expected points added per play) +0.44 vs +0.07, success rate 48% vs 47%).
BYU vs Iowa State, 24–10 W+14 vs +21 implied · -7

The scoreboard undersold BYU: the +14 margin ran 7 points behind the +21 implied by per-play quality (PPA (expected points added per play) +0.23 vs -0.12, success rate 50% vs 29%).

Upsets

Ranked teams that lost to an unranked or lower-ranked opponent, by the AP Top 25 in effect for week 6, with each model's pregame margin from the ranked side and the line beside them for comparison only; ✓ when a model had the winner, ✗ when it did not.

#1 Texas lost vs OklahomaOklahoma 27, Texas 24

SP+
–

Elo ✗
+8.0

Line
+6.0

Our model ✗
+4.2
#10 LSU lost at KentuckyKentucky 35, LSU 34

SP+
–

Elo ✗
+4.6

Line
+10.0

Our model ✗
+10.4
#13 Oregon lost vs #21 UCLAUCLA 17, Oregon 15

SP+
–

Elo ✗
+9.9

Line
+12.5

Our model ✗
+17.5
#16 Florida lost vs South CarolinaSouth Carolina 38, Florida 19

SP+
–

Elo ✗
+3.3

Line
+14.5

Our model ✗
+9.2
#25 Pittsburgh lost vs North CarolinaNorth Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17

SP+
–

Elo ✗
+12.2

Line
–

Our model ✗
+10.1

Called it: SP+ 0 of 0 · Elo 0 of 5 · Our model 0 of 5.

Biggest swings

The plays that moved win probability most, across the 21 games with win-probability data, from the home side.

LSU at KentuckyKentucky 24% → 74%

Q4 0:12, 4th & 1: (00:12) #88 A.Zouagui field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #47 S.Radnoti), clock 00:12 · final Kentucky 35, LSU 34
Texas vs OklahomaOklahoma 82% → 36%

Q4, 2nd & 6: Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass complete short left to #4 J.Bishop Jr. caught at OU04, for 15 yards to the OU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:32, 1ST DOWN #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #43 M.Chiumento, LS: #47 T.Dubuc) PENALTY OU Leverage (#34 A.Adebawore) 15 yards from OU00 to UT50 · final Oklahoma 27, Texas 24
Indiana at NebraskaNebraska 72% → 27%

Q4 7:21, 4th & 1: (07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #11 N.Marsh caught at NEB31, for 44 yards to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:13, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #93 Q.Warren, LS: #55 D.Clausen) · final Nebraska 17, Indiana 20

Regression watch, checked

Last week's teams whose score ran more than 7 points from the play, and what they did this week against their season-to-date form (average margin before the game, home field removed). The 2022–25 study found flattered teams fell -3.0 short of form the next game and undersold teams beat it by +1.7.

Texas Tech · flattered +22 vs Coloradodid not play
Houston · flattered +14 vs UCFat Kansas State 35–16 W · +0.8 vs form (+12.1 vs the field)
Virginia · flattered +12 vs Florida Statevs Syracuse 28–25 W · -14.3 vs form (-3.0 vs the field)
Louisville · flattered +9 vs NC Statevs Florida State 44–20 W · +13.1 vs form (+24.4 vs the field)
SMU · flattered +8 vs Boston Collegedid not play
Mississippi State · flattered +7 vs Alabamadid not play
Florida State · undersold -12 vs Virginiaat Louisville 20–44 L · -31.6 vs form (-20.3 vs the field)
Alabama · undersold -7 vs Mississippi Statevs Georgia 17–20 L · -33.8 vs form (-22.5 vs the field)
Kentucky · undersold -7 vs South Carolinavs LSU 35–34 W · -8.8 vs form (+2.5 vs the field)

Baseline: all 31 page teams that played ran -11.3 vs form this week. The baseline matters because early-season form comes mostly from easier non-conference games, so the whole field tends to fall short of it once conference play starts; a flagged group is read against the field, not against zero.

Flattered: -0.1 vs form over 3, +11.2 against the baseline (-3.0 in the study) · Undersold: -24.7 vs form over 3, -13.4 against the baseline (+1.7 in the study). One week is a few teams and proves nothing either way; the point is that the check is visible every week.

How these are computed

Verdicts are the team pages' own: the score against the margin the plays earned, recomputed here from the box score and drives, so any past week rebuilds the same way. The closest-projection table is the accuracy report's block for the week; a game counts only if one of its teams had a page before kickoff, and our model is kept on its own line. SP+ is graded only in weeks where its own rating was posted before kickoff; an earlier snapshot shown before a game is never scored. Upsets use the AP Top 25 in effect for the week's games; every ranked team has a page, so no upset is missed. Pregame margins are the same ones the season record scores. Swings are the win-probability moves in the play-by-play. The regression check uses the study's own definition of form. Nothing on this page is written by AI, and a section with nothing to show is left out.