Result
Final: Boise State 38, Fresno State 31
Closest: Our model (Boise State by 8.2, missed by 1.2). 2 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Boise State by 4.2Lean
SP+ and Our model favor Boise State; Elo favors Fresno State (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot).
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Boise State by 5.4, Elo has Fresno State by 1.1, and Our model has Boise State by 8.2. The furthest apart are 9.3 points from each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Boise State +7.6 vs Fresno State -0.3 · week 5 ratings | Boise State by 5.4 ✓ | 1.6 |
| Elo Boise State 1681 vs Fresno State 1645 | Fresno State by 1.1 ✗ | 8.1 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Boise State +5.6 vs Fresno State -5.1 | Boise State by 8.2 ✓ | 1.2 |
| Line (benchmark) no pregame line | n/a | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | Boise State by 4.2 ✓ | 2.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Boise State leads 17–10 · last: Fresno State 30–7, 2025 · Fresno State has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State 30–7 | Albertsons Stadium |
| 2023 | Fresno State 37–30 | Valley Children's Stadium |
| 2022 | Fresno State 28–16 | Albertsons Stadium |
| 2022 | Boise State 40–20 | Albertsons Stadium |
| 2021 | Boise State 40–14 | Valley Children's Stadium |
Team pages
Boise State ›Fresno StateEvery game's projections ›