Result
Final: Louisville 44, Florida State 20
Closest: SP+ (Louisville by 6.7, missed by 17.3). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Louisville by 3.9Lean
All three models favor Louisville (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot).
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Louisville by 6.7, Elo has Louisville by 3.1, and Our model has Louisville by 1.8. They are within 4.9 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest Florida State +5.7 vs Louisville +9.9 · week 5 ratings | Louisville by 6.7 ✓ | 17.3 |
| Elo Florida State 1656 vs Louisville 1671 | Louisville by 3.1 ✓ | 20.9 |
| Our model · experimental Florida State +9.4 vs Louisville +8.7 | Louisville by 1.8 ✓ | 22.2 |
| Line (benchmark) no pregame line | n/a | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | Louisville by 3.9 ✓ | 20.1 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Florida State leads 17–5 · last: Florida State 16–6, 2023 · Florida State has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Florida State 16–6 | neutral site |
| 2022 | Florida State 35–31 | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium |
| 2021 | Louisville 31–23 | Doak Campbell Stadium |
| 2020 | Louisville 48–16 | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium |
| 2019 | Florida State 35–24 | Doak Campbell Stadium |