Result
Final: BYU 24, Iowa State 10
Closest: Our call (BYU by 12.7, missed by 1.3). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: BYU by 12.7Strong
All three models favor BYU (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has BYU by 14.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has BYU by 15.4, Elo has BYU by 3.7, and Our model has BYU by 19.1. They are within 15.4 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Iowa State +3.4 vs BYU +16.3 · week 5 ratings | BYU by 15.4 ✓ | 1.4 |
| Elo Iowa State 1669 vs BYU 1699 | BYU by 3.7 ✓ | 10.3 |
| Our model · experimental Iowa State +1.0 vs BYU +17.7 | BYU by 19.1 ✓ | 5.1 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | BYU by 14.5 | 0.5 |
| Our call Closest average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | BYU by 12.7 ✓ | 1.3 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Iowa State leads 5–1 · last: BYU 41–27, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | BYU 41–27 | Jack Trice Stadium |
| 2023 | Iowa State 45–13 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |
| 1974 | Iowa State 34–7 | — |
| 1973 | Iowa State 26–24 | — |
| 1969 | Iowa State 10–0 | — |
Team pages
Iowa StateBYU ›Every game's projections ›