Result
Final: Kentucky 35, LSU 34
Closest: Elo (LSU by 4.6, missed by 5.6). 0 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: LSU by 8.6Strong
All three models favor LSU (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has LSU by 10.0.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has LSU by 10.8, Elo has LSU by 4.6, and Our model has LSU by 10.4. They are within 6.2 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ LSU +21.3 vs Kentucky +8.0 · week 5 ratings | LSU by 10.8 ✗ | 11.8 |
| Elo Closest LSU 1736 vs Kentucky 1559 | LSU by 4.6 ✗ | 5.6 |
| Our model · experimental LSU +18.3 vs Kentucky +5.4 | LSU by 10.4 ✗ | 11.4 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | LSU by 10 | 11.0 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | LSU by 8.6 ✗ | 9.6 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
LSU leads 40–17–1 · last: Kentucky 42–21, 2021
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Kentucky 42–21 | Kroger Field |
| 2014 | LSU 41–3 | Tiger Stadium (LA) |
| 2011 | LSU 35–7 | Tiger Stadium (LA) |
| 2007 | Kentucky 43–37 | Kroger Field |
| 2006 | LSU 49–0 | Tiger Stadium (LA) |