Result
Final: Tennessee 24, Arkansas 17
Closest: Elo (Tennessee by 10.1, missed by 3.1). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Tennessee by 13.2Strong
All three models favor Tennessee (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot).
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Tennessee by 15.5, Elo has Tennessee by 10.1, and Our model has Tennessee by 14.0. They are within 5.4 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Tennessee +17.7 vs Arkansas -0.3 · week 5 ratings | Tennessee by 15.5 ✓ | 8.5 |
| Elo Closest Tennessee 1786 vs Arkansas 1472 | Tennessee by 10.1 ✓ | 3.1 |
| Our model · experimental Tennessee +14.1 vs Arkansas -2.4 | Tennessee by 14 ✓ | 7.0 |
| Line (benchmark) no pregame line | n/a | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Tennessee by 13.2 ✓ | 6.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Tennessee leads 14–7 · last: Tennessee 34–31, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tennessee 34–31 | Neyland Stadium |
| 2024 | Arkansas 19–14 | Razorback Stadium |
| 2020 | Arkansas 24–13 | Razorback Stadium |
| 2015 | Arkansas 24–20 | Neyland Stadium |
| 2011 | Arkansas 49–7 | Razorback Stadium |