Result
Final: Oklahoma State 42, UCF 28
Closest: SP+ (Oklahoma State by 4, missed by 10.0). 1 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: UCF by 0.8Toss-up
SP+ favors Oklahoma State; Elo and Our model favor UCF (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot).
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Oklahoma State by 4.0, Elo has UCF by 3.8, and Our model has UCF by 2.6. The furthest apart are 7.8 points from each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest UCF +8.7 vs Oklahoma State +10.2 · week 5 ratings | Oklahoma State by 4 ✓ | 10.0 |
| Elo UCF 1488 vs Oklahoma State 1330 | UCF by 3.8 ✗ | 17.8 |
| Our model · experimental UCF +4.0 vs Oklahoma State -1.1 | UCF by 2.6 ✗ | 16.6 |
| Line (benchmark) no pregame line | n/a | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | UCF by 0.8 ✗ | 14.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 2 meetings
UCF leads 2–0 · last: UCF 17–14, 2025 · UCF has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCF 17–14 | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| 2023 | UCF 45–3 | FBC Mortgage Stadium |