Result
Final: UCLA 17, Oregon 15
Closest: Elo (Oregon by 9.9, missed by 11.9). 0 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Oregon by 12.6Strong
All three models favor Oregon (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Oregon by 12.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Oregon by 10.3, Elo has Oregon by 9.9, and Our model has Oregon by 17.5. They are within 7.6 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Oct 10, 1:01 PM CT).
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ UCLA +13.8 vs Oregon +21.6 · week 5 ratings | Oregon by 10.3 ✗ | 12.3 |
| Elo Closest UCLA 1660 vs Oregon 1844 | Oregon by 9.9 ✗ | 11.9 |
| Our model · experimental UCLA +7.9 vs Oregon +22.8 | Oregon by 17.5 ✗ | 19.5 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Oregon by 12.5 | 14.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Oregon by 12.6 ✗ | 14.6 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
As of Sat Oct 10, 12:30 PM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Ashton Sanders DLOut
- Jonah Smith WROut
- Mikey Matthews WR · footOut · season
- Sam Yoon OLOut
As of Sat Oct 10, 12:30 PM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Aaron Flowers DBOut
- Brayden Platt ILBOut
- Dante Moore QB · concussionOut
- Jack Ressler WROut
- Jeremiah McClellan WR · footOut
- Simeon Price RBOut
- Trent Ferguson OLOut
- Aaron Scott Jr. DBQuestionable
As the lists stood at kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
UCLA leads 40–33 · last: Oregon 34–13, 2024 · Oregon has won 5 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Oregon 34–13 | Rose Bowl |
| 2022 | Oregon 45–30 | Autzen Stadium |
| 2021 | Oregon 34–31 | Rose Bowl |
| 2020 | Oregon 38–35 | Autzen Stadium |
| 2018 | Oregon 42–21 | Autzen Stadium |