Result
Final: USC 31, Penn State 23
Closest: Our model (USC by 3.1, missed by 4.9). 1 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Penn State by 0.8Toss-up
SP+ and Elo favor Penn State; Our model favors USC (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Penn State by 1.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Penn State by 1.6, Elo has Penn State by 3.9, and Our model has USC by 3.1. The furthest apart are 7.0 points from each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ USC +17.8 vs Penn State +16.9 · week 5 ratings | Penn State by 1.6 ✗ | 9.6 |
| Elo USC 1785 vs Penn State 1821 | Penn State by 3.9 ✗ | 11.9 |
| Our model · experimental Closest USC +14.2 vs Penn State +8.6 | USC by 3.1 ✓ | 4.9 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Penn State by 1.5 | 9.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | Penn State by 0.8 ✗ | 8.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
USC leads 6–5 · last: Penn State 33–30, 2024
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Penn State 33–30 | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |
| 2016 | USC 52–49 | neutral site |
| 2008 | USC 38–24 | neutral site |
| 2000 | USC 29–5 | — |
| 1996 | Penn State 24–7 | — |