The prediction
Our call: Texas by 13.0Strong
All three models favor Texas. The line, shown for comparison only, has Texas by 10.0.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Texas by 15.9, Elo has Texas by 14.3, and Our model has Texas by 8.7. They are within 7.2 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Florida +11.0 vs Texas +24.4 | Texas by 15.9 |
| Elo Florida 1619 vs Texas 1914 | Texas by 14.3 |
| Our model · experimental Florida +11.8 vs Texas +18.1 | Texas by 8.7 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Texas by 10 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Texas by 13.0 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
Texas leads 3–1–1 · last: Florida 29–21, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida 29–21 | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium |
| 2024 | Texas 49–17 | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium |
| 1940 | Texas 26–0 | — |
| 1939 | Texas 12–0 | — |
| 1924 | Tie 7–7 | — |