The prediction
Our call: SMU by 6.9Lean
All three models favor SMU. The line, shown for comparison only, has SMU by 7.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has SMU by 6.8, Elo has SMU by 6.4, and Our model has SMU by 7.4. They are within 1.0 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Virginia +8.5 vs SMU +12.8 | SMU by 6.8 |
| Elo Virginia 1592 vs SMU 1689 | SMU by 6.4 |
| Our model · experimental Virginia +3.6 vs SMU +8.5 | SMU by 7.4 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | SMU by 7.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | SMU by 6.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
As of Sat Oct 3, 9:00 AM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Ira Singleton IV DEOut · season
Last 1 meeting
SMU leads 1–0 · last: SMU 33–7, 2024
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | SMU 33–7 | Scott Stadium |