Result
Final: Ohio State 31, Iowa 14
Closest: SP+ (Ohio State by 11.5, missed by 5.5). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Ohio State by 9.2Strong
All three models favor Ohio State. The line, shown for comparison only, has Ohio State by 14.0.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Ohio State by 11.5, Elo has Ohio State by 5.6, and Our model has Ohio State by 10.4. They are within 5.9 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest Ohio State +28.8 vs Iowa +14.8 | Ohio State by 11.5 ✓ | 5.5 |
| Elo Ohio State 2044 vs Iowa 1841 | Ohio State by 5.6 ✓ | 11.4 |
| Our model · experimental Ohio State +23.6 vs Iowa +10.6 | Ohio State by 10.4 ✓ | 6.6 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Ohio State by 14 | 3.0 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Ohio State by 9.2 ✓ | 7.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
Ohio State leads 49–15–3 · last: Ohio State 35–7, 2024 · Ohio State has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ohio State 35–7 | Ohio Stadium |
| 2022 | Ohio State 54–10 | Ohio Stadium |
| 2017 | Iowa 55–24 | Kinnick Stadium |
| 2013 | Ohio State 34–24 | Ohio Stadium |
| 2010 | Ohio State 20–17 | Kinnick Stadium |