Result
Final: North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17
Closest: Our model (Pittsburgh by 10.1, missed by 14.1). 0 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Our call: Pittsburgh by 12.2Strong
All three models favor Pittsburgh (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot).
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Pittsburgh by 14.2, Elo has Pittsburgh by 12.2, and Our model has Pittsburgh by 10.1. They are within 4.1 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ North Carolina +3.0 vs Pittsburgh +14.7 · week 5 ratings | Pittsburgh by 14.2 ✗ | 18.2 |
| Elo North Carolina 1426 vs Pittsburgh 1668 | Pittsburgh by 12.2 ✗ | 16.2 |
| Our model · experimental Closest North Carolina +3.0 vs Pittsburgh +10.6 | Pittsburgh by 10.1 ✗ | 14.1 |
| Line (benchmark) no pregame line | n/a | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Pittsburgh by 12.2 ✗ | 16.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Team pages
North CarolinaPittsburgh ›Every game's projections ›